Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Positioning for a Bremain result

Mid-week market update: Even though the polls show the two sides running neck and neck, my inner trader is positioning for a Remain result in the UK referendum for the following reasons.
  • Polling internals indicate momentum towards Remain;
  • Bookmaker odds overwhelmingly favor Remain over Leave; and
  • Market anxiety is rising - so a "buy the rumor, sell the news" position is not warranted.
This is obviously a speculative trade and much could go wrong. The pollsters totally missed the results of the last UK election. In addition, severe weather in southeast England could affect turnout and therefore skew results.

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